flo<p><span>AI 2027 - Intro: <br>"We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.<br>We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like. It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes." <br><br>by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean <br><br>--- <br><br>"Late 2025: The World’s Most Expensive AI <br>OpenBrain is building the biggest datacenters the world has ever seen. (To avoid singling out any one existing company, we’re going to describe a fictional artificial general intelligence company, which we’ll call OpenBrain. We imagine the others to be 3–9 months behind OpenBrain.)<br>GPT-3 (3 x 10^23 FLOPS)<br>GPT-4 (2 x 10^25 FLOPS)<br>Agent-1 (3 x 10^27 FLOPS)<br><br>GPT-4 required 2⋅1025 FLOP of compute to train. OpenBrain’s latest public model—Agent-0—was trained with 1027 FLOP." <br>(read more in the description of figure 1) <br><br>--- <br><br>"In our timelines forecast, we predict when OpenBrain will internally develop a superhuman coder (SC): an AI system that can do any coding tasks that the best AGI company engineer does, while being much faster and cheaper." <br>(read more in the description of figure 2) <br><br>--- <br><br>"Aided by the new capabilities breakthroughs, Agent-3 is a fast and cheap superhuman coder. OpenBrain runs 200,000 Agent-3 copies in parallel, creating a workforce equivalent to 50,000 copies of the best human coder sped up by 30x. <br>(...) <br>Still, they are achieving a year’s worth of algorithmic progress every week and will therefore soon be up against the limits of the Agent-4 paradigm. <br>(...) <br>As Agent-4 gets smarter, it becomes harder for Agent-3 to oversee it. For example, Agent-4’s neuralese “language” becomes as alien and incomprehensible to Agent-3 as Agent-3’s is to humans. <br>(...) <br>Mar 2027: Superhuman coder (SC): <br>An AI system that can do the job of the best human coder on tasks involved in AI research but faster, and cheaply enough to run lots of copies.<br><br>Aug 2027: Superhuman AI researcher (SAR): <br>The same as SC but for all cognitive AI research tasks.<br><br>Nov 2027: Superintelligent AI researcher (SIAR): <br>An AI system that is vastly better than the best human researcher at AI research.<br><br>Dec 2027: Artificial superintelligence (ASI): An AI system that is much better than the best human at every cognitive task.<br>(...) <br>Things that sound like science fiction keep happening in real life." <br><br></span><a href="https://iceshrimp.de/tags/AI2027" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#AI2027</a><span> </span><a href="https://iceshrimp.de/tags/KünstlicheIntelligenz" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#KünstlicheIntelligenz</a><span> </span><a href="https://iceshrimp.de/tags/KI" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#KI</a><span> </span><a href="https://iceshrimp.de/tags/ArtificialIntelligence" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ArtificialIntelligence</a><span> </span><a href="https://iceshrimp.de/tags/SuperhumanCoder" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#SuperhumanCoder</a><span> </span><a href="https://iceshrimp.de/tags/SuperhumanAIresearcher" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#SuperhumanAIresearcher</a><span> </span><a href="https://iceshrimp.de/tags/SuperintelligentAIresearcher" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#SuperintelligentAIresearcher</a><span> </span><a href="https://iceshrimp.de/tags/ArtificialSuperintelligence" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ArtificialSuperintelligence</a></p>